The picks

Playoff Predictions

The scorecard

How the Opening Round went: 38–10

38–10 on 48 picks · 79.2% hit rate · graded Oct 27, 2026, 9:39 AM

The Prairie Power Index finished the opening round with a 38-10 record, achieving a 79.2% hit rate across 48 picks. The model’s strongest performance came in Class 2A and 3A, where it matched or exceeded its accuracy in each division. The biggest miss occurred when the site favored Carrollton over Athens, a prediction that fell short as Athens won 48-14. The most confident hit was the selection of Oakwood over Pleasant Hill, which materialized with a 53-12 victory, a result the model had assigned a 96% chance of occurring.

The index’s accuracy varied across classifications, with Class 1A showing a 75% success rate and Class 2A and 3A each achieving 81.3%. While the model correctly identified several high-probability outcomes, it also faced challenges in predicting upsets or closely contested matches. The results reflect a mix of strong confidence in certain matchups and the inherent unpredictability of playoff football, where even well-researched picks can be overturned by game-day factors.

Class 1A — 12–4

Class 1A — Opening Round scorecard
Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob	Result
Fri, Oct 23	Abingdon-Avon at Morrison	Abingdon-Avon	95%	W 49-7
Fri, Oct 23	Ottawa Marquette at Princeville	Ottawa Marquette	89%	W 42-21
Fri, Oct 23	Dwight at Bureau Valley	Dwight	86%	W 21-8
Fri, Oct 23	Cumberland at Red Hill	Cumberland	60%	L 12-0
Sat, Oct 24	Oakwood at Pleasant Hill	Oakwood	96%	W 53-12
Sat, Oct 24	Lena-Winslow at Momence	Lena-Winslow	95%	W 46-12
Sat, Oct 24	Villa Grove at Dupo	Villa Grove	94%	W 34-0
Sat, Oct 24	Fulton at Monmouth United	Fulton	93%	W 70-15
Sat, Oct 24	Newman Central Cath at Tremont	Newman Central Cath	83%	W 46-6
Sat, Oct 24	West Central at Sesser-Valier	West Central	83%	W 40-8
Sat, Oct 24	Havana at Triopia	Havana	82%	W 57-28
Sat, Oct 24	South Fulton at Casey-Westfield	South Fulton	82%	L disputed (disputed)
Sat, Oct 24	Carlyle at Nokomis	Carlyle	78%	W 41-7
Sat, Oct 24	Galena at Orr	Galena	66%	W 72-6
Sat, Oct 24	LeRoy at Orion	LeRoy	62%	L 21-20
Sat, Oct 24	Carrollton at Athens	Carrollton	51%	L 48-14

Class 2A — 13–3

Class 2A — Opening Round scorecard
Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob	Result
Fri, Oct 23	Chester at Wesclin	Chester	92%	W 55-14
Fri, Oct 23	Illini West at West Hancock	Illini West	90%	W 48-6
Fri, Oct 23	Warrensburg-Latham at Georgetown-Ridge Farm	Warrensburg-Latham	88%	W 42-19
Fri, Oct 23	Hamilton County at Sangamon Valley	Hamilton County	79%	W 38-8
Fri, Oct 23	Central A & M at Marshall	Central A & M	75%	W 48-7
Fri, Oct 23	Winnebago at Elmwood-Brimfield	Winnebago	74%	W 42-12
Fri, Oct 23	Carlinville at Riverton	Carlinville	69%	W 35-28
Fri, Oct 23	St. Teresa at Piasa Southwestern	St. Teresa	67%	W 42-7
Fri, Oct 23	Stillman Valley at Reed-Custer	Reed-Custer	58%	L 32-31
Sat, Oct 24	Carmi-White County at Shelbyville	Carmi-White County	87%	L 42-6
Sat, Oct 24	Farmington at Pleasant Plains	Farmington	86%	W disputed (disputed)
Sat, Oct 24	Westville at Oregon	Westville	85%	L 35-27
Sat, Oct 24	Auburn at Routt	Auburn	84%	W 54-7
Sat, Oct 24	Bismarck-Henning at Chicago Marshall	Bismarck-Henning	80%	W unconfirmed (unconfirmed)
Sat, Oct 24	DuQuoin at C.-Zeigler-Royalton	DuQuoin	79%	W 35-0
Sat, Oct 24	Beardstown at Eastland-Pearl City	Eastland-Pearl City	63%	W 42-14

Class 3A — 13–3

Class 3A — Opening Round scorecard
Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob	Result
Fri, Oct 23	Olympia at Columbia	Olympia	95%	W 56-28
Fri, Oct 23	Hope Academy at Monmouth-Roseville	Hope Academy	78%	W 35-14
Fri, Oct 23	Sandwich at Lisle	Sandwich	75%	W 57-12
Fri, Oct 23	Chicago Christian at Prairie Central	Chicago Christian	69%	L 44-20
Fri, Oct 23	Genoa-Kingston at North Boone	Genoa-Kingston	63%	W 25-20
Fri, Oct 23	Greenville at PORTA	Greenville	61%	W 28-18
Sat, Oct 24	Tolono Unity at Robinson	Tolono Unity	94%	W 70-16
Sat, Oct 24	Manteno at Mendota	Manteno	93%	W 62-7
Sat, Oct 24	Paris at Eureka	Paris	90%	W 16-13
Sat, Oct 24	Sparta at Mater Dei	Sparta	87%	W 54-13
Sat, Oct 24	Fairfield at Staunton	Fairfield	82%	W 32-7
Sat, Oct 24	Dyett at Pontiac	Dyett	73%	L 44-26
Sat, Oct 24	Kewanee at Woodstock Marian	Kewanee	70%	L 56-14
Sat, Oct 24	South Shore Interntl at Princeton	Princeton	65%	W 64-20
Sat, Oct 24	Roxana at Massac County	Roxana	53%	W 60-23
Sat, Oct 24	Althoff at Harrisburg	Althoff	51%	W 13-12

The picks above are the ones published before the games were played — the scorecard grades what was published, not a re-run of the model against the results.

This week's picks

Round 1 · 48 games, 48 with a pick · PPI through Week 10 (games of 2026-10-24) · generated Oct 27, 2026, 8:55 AM

Every named round 1 matchup, with a win probability for the Prairie Power Index favourite. The pick is the model's, not a prediction of heart — one-game samples at high-school level swing.

Method: the pairwise PPI gap maps to a win probability (a 10-point gap ≈ 73%, the historical playoff-favourite hit rate). The PPI rates every 11-player school in Illinois, so a bracket game against a school outside the 1A–3A enrollment bands still gets a real pick — the game's class is the bracket's own Class field, as assigned by the IHSA. Records are regular-season. This page is a model, not an official bracket — the authoritative field lives on the Playoffs page.

Class 1A — 16 picks

Class 1A — Round 1 picks
Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob
Sat, Oct 31	Tuscola at Casey-Westfield (7-2 vs 4-6)	Tuscola PPI 73.3 · #5 vs PPI 40.9 · #37	96%
Sat, Oct 31	Arthur-Lovington at Red Hill (8-1 vs 5-5)	Arthur-Lovington PPI 77.5 · #2 vs PPI 52.5 · #30	92%
Sat, Oct 31	Stockton at Orion (8-1 vs 5-5)	Stockton PPI 76.2 · #3 vs PPI 51.1 · #31	92%
Sat, Oct 31	Heyworth at Galena (9-0 vs 6-4)	Heyworth PPI 78.7 · #1 vs PPI 58.8 · #23	88%
Sat, Oct 31	Brown County at Athens (9-0 vs 5-5)	Brown County PPI 72.6 · #6 vs PPI 53.3 · #29	87%
Sat, Oct 31	Calhoun at Carlyle (8-1 vs 7-3)	Calhoun PPI 71.8 · #7 vs PPI 57.2 · #24	81%
Sat, Oct 31	Rockridge at Newman Central Cath (8-1 vs 6-4)	Rockridge PPI 69.5 · #9 vs PPI 56.2 · #27	79%
Sat, Oct 31	Salt Fork at Villa Grove (7-2 vs 7-3)	Salt Fork PPI 65.6 · #16 vs PPI 54 · #28	76%
Sat, Oct 31	Camp Point Cen. at West Central (8-1 vs 7-3)	Camp Point Cen. PPI 67.8 · #11 vs PPI 57.2 · #25	74%
Sat, Oct 31	Clifton Central at Ottawa Marquette (8-1 vs 7-3)	Clifton Central PPI 74.2 · #4 vs PPI 64.4 · #17	73%
Sat, Oct 31	Sullivan at Havana (8-1 vs 7-3)	Sullivan PPI 66.7 · #12 vs PPI 56.6 · #26	73%
Fri, Oct 30	A.-Wethersfield at Dwight (8-1 vs 7-3)	A.-Wethersfield PPI 68.4 · #10 vs PPI 60.7 · #22	68%
Sat, Oct 31	Stark County at Fulton (7-3 vs 7-2)	Fulton PPI 66.5 · #13 vs PPI 61.5 · #21	62%
Sat, Oct 31	Forreston at Lena-Winslow (7-2 vs 7-3)	Forreston PPI 69.6 · #8 vs PPI 66.4 · #14	58%
Sat, Oct 31	G.-Northwestern at Oakwood (7-3 vs 7-2)	Oakwood PPI 66.3 · #15 vs PPI 63.7 · #18	56%
Sat, Oct 31	Fisher at Abingdon-Avon (8-2 vs 7-2)	Abingdon-Avon PPI 63.3 · #19 vs PPI 62 · #20	53%

Class 2A — 16 picks

Class 2A — Round 1 picks
Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob
Fri, Oct 30	El Paso-Gridley at Stillman Valley (9-0 vs 5-5)	El Paso-Gridley PPI 82 · #2 vs PPI 49.5 · #32	96%
Sat, Oct 31	Riverdale at Eastland-Pearl City (9-0 vs 5-5)	Riverdale PPI 82.4 · #1 vs PPI 52.8 · #28	95%
Fri, Oct 30	Maroa-Forsyth at Oregon (8-1 vs 4-6)	Maroa-Forsyth PPI 72.4 · #10 vs PPI 45.5 · #34	94%
Fri, Oct 30	Johnston City at Carlinville (9-0 vs 5-5)	Johnston City PPI 75.2 · #6 vs PPI 52.5 · #29	91%
Sat, Oct 31	Pana at Shelbyville (7-2 vs 3-7)	Pana PPI 65.8 · #13 vs PPI 42.8 · #37	91%
Sat, Oct 31	West Frankfort at St. Teresa (8-1 vs 5-5)	West Frankfort PPI 80.5 · #3 vs PPI 56.8 · #21	91%
Sat, Oct 31	Tri-Valley at Bismarck-Henning (8-1 vs 6-4)	Tri-Valley PPI 78.2 · #4 vs PPI 56.6 · #22	90%
Sat, Oct 31	Flora at Central A & M (8-1 vs 6-4)	Flora PPI 74.4 · #8 vs PPI 53.2 · #27	89%
Fri, Oct 30	Wilmington at Farmington (8-1 vs 6-4)	Wilmington PPI 77.5 · #5 vs PPI 60.6 · #16	84%
Sat, Oct 31	Nashville at DuQuoin (7-2 vs 6-4)	Nashville PPI 73.4 · #9 vs PPI 57.9 · #19	82%
Fri, Oct 30	Aurora Christian at Winnebago (8-1 vs 6-4)	Aurora Christian PPI 74.6 · #7 vs PPI 61.5 · #15	79%
Sat, Oct 31	Peotone at Illini West (7-2 vs 8-2)	Peotone PPI 68.8 · #11 vs PPI 57.4 · #20	76%
Sat, Oct 31	Vandalia at Hamilton County (7-2 vs 6-4)	Vandalia PPI 62.5 · #14 vs PPI 51.8 · #30	74%
Sat, Oct 31	Erie-Prophetstown at Warrensburg-Latham (7-2 vs 7-3)	Erie-Prophetstown PPI 66.2 · #12 vs PPI 60 · #17	65%
Fri, Oct 30	Newton at Chester (6-4 vs 6-3)	Chester PPI 57.9 · #18 vs PPI 55.6 · #24	56%
Sat, Oct 31	Red Bud at Auburn (6-3 vs 6-4)	Red Bud PPI 55.9 · #23 vs PPI 53.8 · #25	55%

Class 3A — 16 picks

Class 3A — Round 1 picks
Date	Matchup	PPI pick	Win prob
Sat, Oct 31	Byron at Prairie Central (9-0 vs 5-5)	Byron PPI 83.7 · #1 vs PPI 54.4 · #31	95%
Sat, Oct 31	Richmond-Burton at Princeton (9-0 vs 5-5)	Richmond-Burton PPI 82.7 · #2 vs PPI 54.5 · #30	94%
Fri, Oct 30	IC Catholic at Genoa-Kingston (8-1 vs 6-4)	IC Catholic PPI 80.2 · #4 vs PPI 55.1 · #28	92%
Sat, Oct 31	St. Joseph-Ogden at Althoff (9-0 vs 7-3)	St. Joseph-Ogden PPI 80.5 · #3 vs PPI 57 · #26	91%
Sat, Oct 31	Durand-Pecatonica at Sandwich (8-1 vs 6-4)	Durand-Pecatonica PPI 73.8 · #6 vs PPI 55.9 · #27	86%
Sat, Oct 31	Mt Carmel at Greenville (9-0 vs 7-3)	Mt Carmel PPI 73.8 · #7 vs PPI 57.7 · #25	83%
Sat, Oct 31	Hillsboro at Roxana (9-0 vs 7-3)	Hillsboro PPI 75.4 · #5 vs PPI 60.4 · #22	82%
Fri, Oct 30	McNamara at Hope Academy (7-2 vs 6-4)	McNamara PPI 72.8 · #8 vs PPI 60.2 · #23	78%
Fri, Oct 30	Johnsburg at Woodstock Marian (7-2 vs 4-6)	Johnsburg PPI 63.9 · #19 vs PPI 52.1 · #35	76%
Sat, Oct 31	Woodlawn at Pontiac (6-2 vs 4-6)	Woodlawn PPI 59.7 · #24 vs PPI 49.6 · #37	73%
Sat, Oct 31	Williamsville at Sparta (8-1 vs 8-2)	Williamsville PPI 71.2 · #9 vs PPI 64.1 · #18	67%
Sat, Oct 31	Bloom. Central Cath. at Tolono Unity (8-2 vs 7-2)	Tolono Unity PPI 70.8 · #10 vs PPI 66.1 · #15	62%
Sat, Oct 31	Monticello at Olympia (7-2 vs 8-2)	Monticello PPI 69.1 · #11 vs PPI 66.2 · #14	57%
Fri, Oct 30	St. Bede at Manteno (7-3 vs 7-2)	Manteno PPI 63.9 · #20 vs PPI 61.2 · #21	57%
Sat, Oct 31	Macomb at Paris (8-2 vs 8-1)	Paris PPI 69.1 · #12 vs PPI 66.5 · #13	56%
Sat, Oct 31	Benton at Fairfield (8-1 vs 8-2)	Benton PPI 65.4 · #16 vs PPI 64.8 · #17	51%

Picks are generated from the same snapshot that powers the Playoff Picture and refresh with it after each week's games.